Richard Froese
Voters across Canada could be going to the polls in a federal election sooner than later.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government recently lost a huge supporting partner in a minority government. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh went on social media Sept. 4 to announce that he tore up a supply-and-confidence agreement the NDP had with the Liberal government.
Scheduled to expire in June 2025, the agreement was signed in March 2022 by both parties and committed the NDP to supporting the Liberal government on confidence votes in exchange for legislative commitment on NDP priorities.
Now, many Canadians are wondering whether that could trigger a federal election sooner than most were expecting before the latest NDP move.
An election must be held on or before Oct. 20, 2025, which would be one day after the 10th anniversary that the Liberals won the election to unseat the Conservative government. Just after the news that Singh ripped up the agreement was broadcast, many were wondering if that would trigger a snap election as soon as this fall.
Conservatives were certainly cheering that Trudeau lost a big supporter – even from an opposition party. They were thinking they could get rid of Trudeau sooner than later.
Trudeau has not been well supported by Alberta – Conservative Country – and neighbouring western provinces. He has not been a friend of the gas and oil industry, which is big in Alberta and his carbon tax has been strongly opposed by Conservatives and people in Alberta – and across Canada.
Don’t count on a federal election in the next few months, however. Provincial elections are already scheduled for three provinces in the last two weeks of October – British Columbia on Oct. 19, New Brunswick on Oct. 21 and Saskatchewan on Oct. 28. It is definitely not a time to throw in another major election with political parties busy luring voters and support in the provincial elections.
A federal election in the spring would be more practical.
No matter when the election is called, the Conservatives are ready as polls show their support is rising while Trudeau, the Liberals and the NDP are well behind.
With 338 seats in the House of Commons, opinion polls indicate the Conservatives could be on their way to a majority government. Results of a poll by the 338 Canada Project released Sept. 1 – before the move by Singh on on Sept. 4 – show that the Conservatives were supported by 42 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 25 per cent and the NDP at 17 per cent.
The poll also suggests the Conservatives could win 210 seats and form a majority government, more than the 172 required for a majority.
Parties and voters will certainly be ready when the time comes for the next federal election.