Richard Froese
Winter is winding down. Soon the days will be warmer as spring returns March 20.
Political battles will also start to heat up as voters in Alberta head to the polls for a provincial election likely later this spring.
One thing is certain. The Lesser Slave Lake riding will elect a new MLA after United Conservative Party MLA Pat Rehn announced Jan. 14 he was not seeking re-election after serving one term since he was elected April 16, 2019.
Four people are in the running to represent the UCP, including Jerrad Cunningham, of Joussard, Martine Carifelle, of Swan River, Scott Sinclair, of Slave Lake, and Silas Yellowknee, former chief of Bigstone Cree Nation.
Which candidate will best represent the UCP to retain the party seat? Voters will know after UCP members vote Feb. 25-26.
Then the race will be on!
However, the winning candidate and the party may have an uphill battle in what is being considered by political experts as a swing riding.
While the UCP has been generally strong in rural ridings, New Democratic Party candidate Danielle Larivee could return to the post she held after she won the seat May 5, 2015 until she lost in the next election April 16, 2019.
Peace River MLA Dan Williams and Central Peace – Notley MLA Todd Loewen are considered to be in safe ridings and are expected to win.
Loewen raised his profile when he ran for the leadership of the UCP and was then appointed by UCP Leader and Premier Danielle Smith as the minister of forestry, parks and tourism and sworn in Nov. 24.
Provincially, the UCP has a sliver of a margin of support ahead of the NDP. Results of a polled conducted by Abacus Data from Feb. 1-6 show that 47 per cent of respondents support the UCP, followed by the NDP with 45 per cent. Far behind is the Alberta Party with just five per cent.
Rural ridings are also fairly close. Results show that 39 per cent of respondents support the UCP while the NDP held 34 per cent.
Still, 23 per cent of respondents were undecided.
Regarding the leaders, NDP Leader Rachel Notley has improved support over UCP Leader Smith since a poll in December.
More people continue to have a positive point of view of the NDP leader than a negative view, polls indicate. Her favourable rating is plus-six, down from plus-10 in December.
Smith’s rating improved to minus-four, up from minus-12 in December.
In the recent poll, 37 per cent of respondents have a positive view of Smith and 41 per cent of respondents have a negative view.
The 2023 budget announced Feb. 28 will surely be the bases for the UCP election platform.
At the same time, the Opposition NDP will no doubt challenge the UCP with its own priorities.
Get ready for a heated election!